Recently, some Western countries, economic indicators improved. In the United States, even though the U.S. economy and financial system is still weak, but benefited from economic policies to stimulate the onset of the recent economic data show that the economy is expected to short-term rebound, consumer and real estate market has stabilized, rapid increase in government investment, tax cuts The effect may be apparent soon. omnibook xe3 battery,hp 346970-001.
The first quarter of this year, U.S. consumption is expected to reverse the trend of last year’s sharp drop in the second half in favor of experienced positive growth. The earliest in the second quarter, it is likely to see positive growth in GDP.
National economic trends
Since the beginning of this year’s monthly real estate data show that the U.S. housing market downturn may have bottomed out. Housing starts and sales data, second-hand housing sales data are better than expected. Despite the current housing forfeiture rate remains high, which means the issue of existing housing stock will continue for some time, but will not be an area of housing construction is expected to continue to decline. As a result, the past few years has been a drag on GDP-quarter annualized growth rate of about 1 percentage point of the factors that basically been eliminated. hp hstnn-db02 , hp hstnn-ub02.
Inventories of new homes has fallen to the lowest since 2001/2002, but real estate prices have basically dropped buyers do not think the price too expensive levels. Coupled with low mortgage interest rates, consumers will start buying houses some recovery, real estate developers have begun to turn optimistic expectations.
We use weekly release of high-frequency data (including the University of Michigan index of consumer expectations, stock prices, real estate loans Mortgage Bankers Association’s refinancing index, ICSC chain store sales data, etc.) made by the actual quarterly consumption growth forecast, a quarter of U.S. consumption growth likely to rebound to 1% -1.5%, in the second quarter are more likely to rise to more than 2%.hp dp390a , hp pp2100.
The contribution of inventories for growth will be likely in the second quarter from negative to positive. However, investment, exports and corporate profits will continue to rapidly decline. Thus, the GDP growth will be positive growth in the high unemployment rate (expected to exceed 9%) accompanied. At the same time, despite the Federal Reserve is committed to the rapid creation of money and expand its balance sheet, the risk of deflation will continue to rise, the core consumer price index is expected by the end of 2010 will drop to near zero levels. In addition, the Finance Minister Geithner recently proposed plan to rescue the financial system could work, but also hard to say. If this effort ultimately failed, then the U.S. economy in 2010 may be a “second bottom” and re-entering a recession.
On the other side, Europe and Japan, economic indicators are not so encouraging. Eurozone industrial value added in the first quarter of the chain contraction rate, is likely to exceed last year’s fourth quarter of 6%. United Kingdom and Sweden, as well as other Central and Eastern European countries, in similar, or even worse.presario r3000 battery , presario x6000 battery.
However, is not completely good news. Early to stimulate economic policies, such as lower interest rates and inflation rates, speed up the European family deleveraging process. The U.S. economy and global trade and industrial production, the recent signs of recovery, mean that Europe’s industrial production is expected to stabilize the near future. Europe’s main problem is that its internal trade between countries due to a sharp decline in consumption of contraction. This situation is of European countries the household sector deleveraging is still underway, consumer demand is still weak, is likely to continue for some time.
Japan’s February industrial production fell by 9.4% in the chain, down 38.4%, the highest on record low. Sub-industry perspective, in addition to oil and coal industry chain growth, all sectors are experiencing negative growth, of which the transport equipment manufacturing industry, the most dramatic decline (-23.2%). Exports were down 6.8%, inventories were down 4.2%, indicating that inventory adjustment process is still underway, but due to the decline in exports, inventory ratio is still rising. Japan is expected to one-quarter industrial production will continue to shrink, the chain might once again recorded double-digit GDP negative growth.pavilion zv5000 battery , pavilion zv6000 battery.
The good news is that in March the U.S. manufacturing sector index rose 0.5 percentage points to 36.3, more than ring up for three consecutive months, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing slump has eased. Over the previous month, new orders index rose by 8.1 percent in December compared with last year’s rebound in the bottom of 18.1 percentage points. Typically, the U.S. manufacturing ISM index of leading Japanese manufacturing production for about six months, so the Japanese manufacturing production may rebound in the bottom quarter of this year 23.pavilion dv1000 battery , pf723a , hp 367759-001.